Archive - Political Alpha

When will a budget reconciliation bill become law?

The hard fight for the U.S. budget is underway in Congress and on prediction markets.

Jun 30

Romania: Bucharest Mayoral Election?

Coalitions and ambitions in Eastern Europe.

Jun 27

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?

Prediction markets contemplate regime change in Iran.

Jun 25

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

Prediction‑market update.

Jun 23

Congress defunds NPR this year?

Even libertarians need Prairie Home Companion

Jun 20

What countries will Trump visit in the first year?

Prediction markets ponder a year of Trump globe-trotting.

Jun 18

New US-Iran nuclear deal this year?

A look at May's receipts, and chaotic Us-Iran negotiations

Jun 16

When will the National Guard leave Los Angeles?

Quesionable emergencies and Constitutional theater in California.

Jun 13

Will Trump resign before his term is up?

A market that is practically a bond, and a thank you to Polymarket.

Jun 11

Will Trump or Elon apologize first this month?

Or is that a silly question, all around.

Jun 9

Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?

Elon Musk’s future with politics: is there one after his feud with Trump?

Jun 6

Who will be the Dem NYC Mayor nominee this year?

Power struggles and predictions in New York City's Democratic Mayoral primary

Jun 4

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts