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When will a budget reconciliation bill become law?
The hard fight for the U.S. budget is underway in Congress and on prediction markets.
Jun 30
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When will a budget reconciliation bill become law?
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Romania: Bucharest Mayoral Election?
Coalitions and ambitions in Eastern Europe.
Jun 27
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Romania: Bucharest Mayoral Election?
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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?
Prediction markets contemplate regime change in Iran.
Jun 25
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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?
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Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
Prediction‑market update.
Jun 23
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Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
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Congress defunds NPR this year?
Even libertarians need Prairie Home Companion
Jun 20
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Congress defunds NPR this year?
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What countries will Trump visit in the first year?
Prediction markets ponder a year of Trump globe-trotting.
Jun 18
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What countries will Trump visit in the first year?
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New US-Iran nuclear deal this year?
A look at May's receipts, and chaotic Us-Iran negotiations
Jun 16
1
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New US-Iran nuclear deal this year?
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When will the National Guard leave Los Angeles?
Quesionable emergencies and Constitutional theater in California.
Jun 13
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When will the National Guard leave Los Angeles?
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Will Trump resign before his term is up?
A market that is practically a bond, and a thank you to Polymarket.
Jun 11
1
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Will Trump resign before his term is up?
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Will Trump or Elon apologize first this month?
Or is that a silly question, all around.
Jun 9
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Will Trump or Elon apologize first this month?
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Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?
Elon Musk’s future with politics: is there one after his feud with Trump?
Jun 6
2
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Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?
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Who will be the Dem NYC Mayor nominee this year?
Power struggles and predictions in New York City's Democratic Mayoral primary
Jun 4
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Who will be the Dem NYC Mayor nominee this year?
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