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When will a budget reconciliation bill become law?
The hard fight for the U.S. budget is underway in Congress and on prediction markets.
Jun 30

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Political Alpha
When will a budget reconciliation bill become law?
Romania: Bucharest Mayoral Election?
Coalitions and ambitions in Eastern Europe.
Jun 27

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Political Alpha
Romania: Bucharest Mayoral Election?
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?
Prediction markets contemplate regime change in Iran.
Jun 25

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Political Alpha
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
Prediction‑market update.
Jun 23

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Political Alpha
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
Congress defunds NPR this year?
Even libertarians need Prairie Home Companion
Jun 20

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Political Alpha
Congress defunds NPR this year?
What countries will Trump visit in the first year?
Prediction markets ponder a year of Trump globe-trotting.
Jun 18

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Political Alpha
What countries will Trump visit in the first year?
New US-Iran nuclear deal this year?
A look at May's receipts, and chaotic Us-Iran negotiations
Jun 16
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Political Alpha
New US-Iran nuclear deal this year?
When will the National Guard leave Los Angeles?
Quesionable emergencies and Constitutional theater in California.
Jun 13

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Political Alpha
When will the National Guard leave Los Angeles?
Will Trump resign before his term is up?
A market that is practically a bond, and a thank you to Polymarket.
Jun 11
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Political Alpha
Will Trump resign before his term is up?
Will Trump or Elon apologize first this month?
Or is that a silly question, all around.
Jun 9

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Political Alpha
Will Trump or Elon apologize first this month?
Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?
Elon Musk’s future with politics: is there one after his feud with Trump?
Jun 6
2

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Political Alpha
Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?
Who will be the Dem NYC Mayor nominee this year?
Power struggles and predictions in New York City's Democratic Mayoral primary
Jun 4

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Political Alpha
Who will be the Dem NYC Mayor nominee this year?
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