Will European Union sanction Russia before October?

Russia attempts to communicate with Brussels via drone.

Europe just got a fresh provocation, Washington is cranking up leverage, and Brussels has pre-cooked sanction tools ready to deploy. The only question is speed: do they push the button by month-end or let internal politics slow-roll it into October.

Follow the market: Will European Union sanction Russia before October? on Kalshi

Airspace Breached, Calendar Tight

Russian drones twice violated EU territory in the past week, first over Poland and then Romania. A Politico report quoted Ursula von der Leyen calling the Romanian incursion “a blatant violation of EU sovereignty” and “a serious threat to regional security,” while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas labeled it “unacceptable” and warned of “continued reckless escalation.”

All of that adds up to tense EU-Russia relations as the EU seeks to resolve the ongoing war in Ukraine. (The Russians are still calling it a “special military operation.”)

Putin’s prodding is colliding with an EU sanctions policy already in motion. The EU adopted its 18th package on July 18, cutting deeper into energy and finance, including a lower oil price cap, a wider banking ban list, and new hits on Russia’s shadow fleet and Nord Stream transactions. Brussels has been signaling more. In her annual address, von der Leyen said plainly: “we need more sanctions,” with emphasis on “third countries,” a faster phaseout of Russian fossil fuels, the shadow fleet, and enforcement against evasion.