Who will win the Attorney General race in Virginia?

Markets want to know if it will be a split ticket or a Dem sweep.

Today a quick look at the race for Attorney General in Virginia: The market is pricing a narrow Democratic edge, but a closer look reveals a more complex story. Incumbency, ticket balance, and an opponent carrying fresh baggage could tilt this contest.

Follow the market: Who will win the Attorney General race in Virginia? on Kalshi

What’s All This, Then?

Jason Miyares is the incumbent Republican AG seeking a second term, and Jay Jones is the Democratic nominee after a tight primary. The pre-October polling baseline had Jones slightly ahead but within error among registered and likely voters, a soft advantage that lacked insulation.

In early October, leaks of 2022 texts from Jones using violent rhetoric about GOP leaders reframed the contest as a character and temperament test; he apologized, refused to withdraw, and early voting locked the ballot, keeping the quote on people’s minds.