Today’s Kalshi market requires Democrats to achieve a four-way sweep in November 2025: winning the Virginia governorship, controlling Virginia's House of Delegates, capturing New Jersey's governorship, and placing Zohran Mamdani in New York City Hall. The market prices this parlay as if most outcomes have already been decided, but who can say how things will turn out?
Follow the market: Democratic sweep in 2025? on Kalshi
First, The Rules
Democrats must win 1) Virginia Governor, 2) Virginia House of Delegates, and 3) New Jersey Governor, and 4) Zohran Mamdani must win the New York City mayoralty. All four outcomes are decided in the November 2025 general elections.
Virginia's gubernatorial election date is November 4, 2025 and the House of Delegates elections are the same day. New Jersey's gubernatorial election is also November 4, 2025, now Mikie Sherrill vs Jack Ciattarelli. A Ballotpedia overview suggests the race leans Democratic.
New York City's mayor will be chosen in November as well. the Mamdani camp is already “declaring victory in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary after Andrew Cuomo… conceded." Incumbent Mayor Adams is running as an independent.
Snapshots
Virginia: Abigail Spanberger versus Winsome Earle-Sears shapes up as a disciplined moderate versus a culture warrior. Spanberger currently leads by 7-12 points depending on the poll, with recent surveys showing her at 52% to Earle-Sears' 40%. Spanberger's pitch on affordability and stability is pitted against Earle-Sears' extension of Youngkin's brand. Republicans are banking on trans-youth ads to move suburban parents, while Spanberger focuses on the role of parenting.