What will Trump say during the Oval Office announcement?
Reading the room before Trump takes the podium.
Trump’s Friday Night Mystery 🎯
President Trump is set to address the nation from the Oval Office at 5 PM EST today, and nobody knows what he’s going to announce.
The timing is loaded. The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas officially went into effect at noon local time today, ending a two-year war Trump brokered in a matter of weeks. Meanwhile, the government shutdown has entered its ninth day with no end in sight. The Senate failed for the seventh time Thursday to advance funding bills and won’t return until Tuesday.
And this morning, the Nobel Committee gave the Peace Prize to someone else. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her tireless work promoting democratic rights in Venezuela. Trump’s spokesperson reacted: “The Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace.”
The prediction markets are scrambling to price 25+ different words and phrases he might say.
Follow the market: What will Trump say during the Oval Office announcement? on Kalshi
The Obvious Plays (Already Priced)
Deal (93¢), Israel (90¢), Biden (84¢), Democrat (84¢), Shutdown (83¢): Near-locks. Trump will say “deal” and “Israel” discussing Gaza. He’ll attack “Biden” and “Democrats” regardless. “Shutdown” is certain given the nine-day standoff.
Drug (87¢): UNDERPRICED. Trump mentions drugs/fentanyl/cartels in any enforcement discussion. Should be 92¢+.
Tariff (84¢): If Trump discusses any international deal, tariffs come up as leverage. Fair price.
The Value Play 💰
“Nobel Peace Prize” (44¢): ✅ STILL THE SHARP PLAY—BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.
The market was pricing this assuming Trump might celebrate potentially winning. But Machado won the prize this morning, and Trump’s team is already complaining about it.
This makes it MORE likely Trump mentions it. Not to celebrate, but to attack. Trump loves talking about how he’s been snubbed when he feels he deserves something. If he gives an Oval Office address about ending a two-year war hours after losing the Nobel to a Venezuelan opposition leader, he will absolutely bring it up, either sarcastically (“I guess ending wars doesn’t count”) or dismissively (”the same people who gave Obama one for doing nothing”).
At 44¢, the market hasn’t adjusted to today’s news. This should spike to 60¢+. Buy aggressively.
“National Guard” (74¢): ✅ SOLID VALUE.
Trump has repeatedly threatened deployment to Democratic cities. If today includes domestic policy, such as crime, enforcement, and shutdown pressure, this is central. Should be 80¢+.
The Traps 🚫
Schumer (66¢), Hottest (65¢), Economy (64¢), Radical Left (63¢), Portland (63¢): All overpriced. Pass.
Chicago (75¢): Vought put $2.1 billion in Chicago transit funding on hold, but if this is 90% Israel celebration, it misses. Fair price with risk.
Everything under 30¢: Rally talking points, not Oval Office language. Avoid.
Strategic Recommendation: ✅
TOP PICK: “Nobel Peace Prize” at 44¢ — Buy aggressively to 65¢. Trump just got snubbed hours before his Oval Office address about peace. His ego won’t let this slide.
SECONDARY: “National Guard” at 74¢ — Buy to 80¢ for domestic exposure.
“Drug” at 87¢ — Small add; should be 92¢+.
Trump doesn’t do Oval Office addresses for nothing. And he definitely doesn’t stay quiet when someone else gets credit. 🎯