How many days will the federal government be shut down this year?
Predictions range from immediate reopening to more than a month.
The shutdown is on. Prediction market traders are trying to predict how long the shutdown will last. The only question that matters for this market is duration, and the incentives in Washington point to a double-digit grind rather than a historic freeze.
Follow the market: How many days will the federal government be shut down this year? on Kalshi
Clock’s Running
The federal government has entered a shutdown after talks collapsed over health care and spending controls. Essential services continue, but the furlough machine is active and the count has started. Kalshi’s contract clocks days between early September and January 1. With a start on October 1, there are up to 92 possible 2025 days on the table. Traders won’t need exact politics to win here, its a calendar game.
The White House is not hiding its tactic. The budget office circulated a directive to prepare for layoffs if the shutdown drags, escalating leverage against Democrats. CNN reported a memo instructing agencies to plan “mass firings.”
Power, Leverage, Pain
Trump’s team is framing the shutdown as a workforce purge opportunity. OMB told agencies to “weigh mass layoffs” and to use RIF (reduction in force) procedures, not just furloughs. Meaning layoff machinery can turn during the shutdown.