Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia?
Is letting Putin keep land a price Zelensky can pay?
A high-profile summit, war fatigue, and a White House eager to trumpet a “deal” are fueling headlines and speculation. Traders in the prediction markets are assessing whether Ukraine will agree to cede territory to Russia by year’s end, and some think concessions are imminent. But will the buzz translate to a historic shift, or are traders getting more noise than signal?
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Read the Rules
This contract pays Yes only if Ukraine signs a deal by the end of 2025 agreeing to give up territory it controls at the time of the agreement. This is not about recognizing Russia’s occupation, or a mere ceasefire, or the seizure of Ukrainian land. It requires Kyiv to sign away, or withdraw from, ground it actually holds. A freeze along current lines, or a face-saving communiqué between Washington and Moscow without Kyiv’s assent, does not qualify.
At the Alaska summit, Donald Trump is pushing Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire while cutting Ukraine out, pitching it as a quick way to stop the bleeding. Reuters reports Trump will try to squeeze a ceasefire out of Putin in Anchorage, with Ukraine not at the table.