Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?
Safe as houses.
Locked In
Markets barely register the chance that President Trump will veto a single bill before the end of the year. With Republicans running Congress and the White House, the “YES” contract sits at just 14¢. Should you dismiss the possibility as pure noise, or is the market ignoring real cracks in Trump’s Washington order?
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Unified Control Means Executive Shortcuts
When MAGA holds the presidency and both chambers of Congress, there’s almost no room for internal rebellion. Trump’s 2025 approach is all about direct action, not brokering deals with even his own party. In his first 100 days, Trump pumped out 143 executive orders, making it clear he trusts unilateral moves over legislative compromise.
Major GOP goals like the massive “One Big Beautiful Bill” covering tax cuts have moved fast and smoothly (if narrowly) through Congress. Democrats, especially those on the left, are locked out of the process completely. They don’t have the numbers or leverage to force through amendments or poison-pill riders.