Will Trump or Elon apologize first this month?
Or is that a silly question, all around.
June 18, 2025 – PAID
📈 Contract Closed, Case Closed
Trump held firm. Musk blinked. Traders who bet on an ego recalibration printed on YES at 26¢.
Drama and Spectacle
The drama between Trump and Musk has hit a new high. With both men masters of media spectacle, this market asks: which one will swallow his pride and apologize first? We need to read the rules of the MAGA era, understand incentives, and know who blinks under real pressure. This is about ego but also about naked power.
Follow the market: Will Trump or Elon apologize first this month? on Kalshi.com
Divorce or Lover’s Quarrel?
Recent headlines have made the split official. Trump and Musk, once public allies, are now clearly at odds. Trump has warned of "serious consequences" if Musk starts backing Democrats. For Trump, this fight is about demanding loyalty from the most visible players in business and politics. Musk, facing new pressure, suddenly finds his usual showmanship under a spotlight that could hurt his own companies.
Power Shifts & Critical Developments
Trump rules the 2025 political stage. His grip on the GOP and the MAGA movement is tighter than ever, driving the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” through Congress: a move designed to scorch the left and keep rivals in check. Since his comeback in 2024, Trump has kept his message sharp. He does not apologize, and to his supporters, that is strategy, not stubbornness. In MAGA circles, apologies are seen as weakness. Trump has no interest in handing that to his opponents.
This month, Trump made his stance even clearer. He told the press there is "no desire" to repair his relationship with Musk, even after Musk tried to cool things down by deleting harsh social media posts.
For Musk, the pressure is financial as well as political. His companies rely on government contracts and public goodwill, but Trump has so far left those deals untouched. Instead, Musk is left wondering when or if the hammer will fall. Trump’s message is simple: he has no plans to backtrack or make peace just because Musk is feeling the heat.
Musk Backpedals on Occasion
Musk's style is different. He loves to provoke, but he knows when to protect his own interests. Earlier this month, Musk publicly accused Trump of ties to Jeffrey Epstein, but then deleted the post once backlash and risk started growing. At the same time, Tesla’s stock dropped and Musk lost $34 billion in net worth - proof that this fight comes with real costs for both sides .
Musk’s delete wasn’t principle. It was self-preservation. He has apologized before when it kept regulators or investors happy. Remember his 2023 apology for antisemitic comments or the Tesla severance pay mess in April 2024.
In recent weeks, Musk has tried to patch things up behind the scenes, even as his aides opened talks with Trump’s team. But Trump’s camp shows no sign of softening. In this environment, apologizing is a losing move for Trump and he knows it.
Pricing
Musk YES: 26¢ ✅ Underpriced
Musk NO: 77¢ ❌ Overpriced
Trump YES / NO: 😂 Seriously?
Strategic Recommendation: ✅
If you want in, Buy Musk YES at 26¢.
The odds are too low given Musk’s record of tactical apologies when real risk appears. The coming weeks could bring another Musk walk-back, especially if Tesla or SpaceX face bigger threats.
With Trump apologizing a virtual impossibility and all the leverage on his side, the smart play is betting on Musk to fold first.
But first, remember that this is a market with a time limit, and that nothing may happen, meaning both default to NO. This is a new, low-volume market and liquidity is not guaranteed. Caveat emptor.