Will Trump make a new free trade agreement?
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.
Tariffs, Leverage, and Trade
Prediction markets are confident that Trump will broker a free trade agreement during his term. The administration touts deals in the works with London and New Delhi, but is it real progress or just a rerun of Trump’s strong-arm routine?
YES on Trump making a new free trade deal is trading at 73¢. With tariffs front and center, are we about to see any “free” in Trump’s trade playbook, or just more of his “pay me” approach?
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‘Free’ Trade, Trump-Style
Under Trump, the purpose of trade policy is clear: cash in and shut rivals out. Tariffs have returned as America’s main economic weapon. Since January, this has become reality, especially with the August 7, 2025, rollout of the most aggressive tariff regime in decades. India now faces 50 percent tariffs for its Russian oil trade, and Canada and Mexico got hit with 25 percent, sparking a fresh wave of retaliation and stalled talks .
What passes for a “free trade agreement” these days is little more than an ultimatum: the U.S. holds the hammer, and partners get a few carve-outs for playing along. The new EU and UK deals are packed with loopholes, quotas, and exceptions - anything but broad, balanced trade liberalization. Trump’s system has no use for old-school, two-way, open-market deals.