Will the U.S. tariff rate on India be at least 25% on Aug 31, 2025?
"Trump-Modi bonhomie had no consequence."
Trump Powers Through on India Tariffs
Washington pulled the trigger: 25% U.S. tariffs on Indian imports are a done deal, with no more wiggle room for Delhi or the market. The White House used India as an example the moment trade talks collapsed over agriculture, tech, and Modi’s refusal to bend on core economic protections. Instead of a mini-deal, India got a direct threat, and now gets a full 25% tariff wall starting August 1.
But will it stick? The many twists and turns of the U.S. trade negotiations have resulted in the phrase “nothing ever happens” becoming a meme in prediction market comments, and the market is leaving open a 15-20% chance that the tariffs will be gone by the end of August.
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Locked and Loaded
The new 25% tariff is the start of a broad plan to punish countries the U.S. sees as economic rivals. White House sources are blunt: this 25% is the floor, not the ceiling, for a trade relationship where, as Trump puts it, “ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!”. The announcement this morning wasn’t a press leak or soft warning, it was a coordinated show of strength, with Trump personally naming India and shaming its trade policies and Russia ties.