Will the United States impose new sanctions on Russia before Oct 2025?
Peace hopes fade and economic brinksmanship follows the Alaska summit.
A Clock, A Threat, And A Low Bar
Prediction markets have had time to digest the Trump-Putin Alaska summit, and initial hopes for an imminent diplomatic breakthrough have faded. With Russia downplaying the likelihood of a bilateral Putin-Zelensky meeting that Trump has championed, Washington is showing impatience.
The market thinks there is a ~25% chance of the U.S. bludgeoning Russia with further sanctions to move negotiations. Do those odds hold up?
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Ultimatum Politics
Moscow’s line is mixed. Vice President JD Vance said Russia has made “significant concessions” toward a peace deal. Sergey Lavrov outlined Russia’s terms focused on Ukrainian neutrality and big-power guarantees, with no NATO. But there is no Putin-Zelensky summit on the books and Western patience is thin. The White House needs leverage, not patience theater.
On Friday, Trump reset the board. According to Politico he told reporters he will decide “whether or not it’s massive sanctions or massive tariffs or both” and gave a timeline: “Over the next two weeks, we’re going to find out which way it’s going to go. And I better be very happy.”
This was not idle posturing. The threat followed a Russian airstrike on a U.S. electronics factory operating in western Ukraine that injured at least 15 people, an escalation that invites a concrete U.S. response.