Will Iran re-enter their IAEA monitoring agreement?
Iran's monitoring deal hinges on forced concessions.
Deadlines Beat Diplomacy
Talks continue over whether Iran will restore full international monitoring of its nuclear program, a requirement under the 2015 nuclear deal that has eroded since the U.S. withdrawal and Tehran’s subsequent pullbacks. Markets are weighing the odds of it happening this year. With Europe pressing for compliance and the IAEA board sharpening its tone, pressure is on in Tehran.
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Strait Talk
Current pricing implies a 60%-65% chance Iran accepts renewed IAEA monitoring before Jan 1. Reality suggests otherwise.
The IAEA Board formally declared Iran in breach of non-proliferation obligations, with a majority condemning Tehran’s lack of cooperation and undeclared work, and Iran answered by vowing more enrichment, not access. Al Jazeera’s readout of the Board’s resolution is blunt: non-compliance since 2019, centrifuge upgrades at Fordow, and explicit warnings Tehran could even quit the NPT (the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) if new sanctions hit.
Europe is preparing the stick. Paris, London, and Berlin have threatened UN sanctions snapback (automatic restoration of pre-2015 UN sanctions) over enrichment at 60 percent and stonewalling inspectors. Tehran’s response to the E3 was not conciliatory, warning of consequences if they pull the snapback trigger, the NPT pullout among them.