Will Elon register the America Party by...?

Prediction market investors know that timing is everything.

Is Musk’s Party All Hype?

Everyone with an eye on money and influence has seen it by now: Elon Musk, fresh off a brutal split with Donald Trump over a massive tax-and-spend bill, declared he’s launching the America Party. He says he’ll break the two-party monopoly, restore “freedom,” and shake up Washington.

It’s uncertain when all that is happening, though. Does Musk have any shot at registering this party before 2025 end? For those watching the clock, is there even a shot the paperwork lands by summer or fall?

Musk’s Registration Black Hole

Musk made his big announcement through X, but there’s an obvious gap: no official FEC filing, just waves of fake entries and troll applications popping up in the federal database. Musk himself has flagged every single one as fraudulent. Right now, there’s no real bank account, no operational structure, and no sign of a functioning organization behind the new party. Andrew Yang is out there offering to team up, talking about partnerships and dreams, but no institutional moves have been made.