Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?
Elon Musk’s future with politics: is there one after his feud with Trump?
Top-Level Feuds
Elon Musk’s recent public split from Trump is fueling wild talk - will he pull a 180 and support the Democrats in 2028? The Kalshi market for “Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?” doesn’t buy it, trading “Yes” at just 15¢. With only 1,784 contracts traded, this is a brand new niche market, with no real predictive power.
The MAGA crowd is watching closely to see if Musk’s falling out with Trump means any real change - or if it’s just another billionaire drama. So far opinion seems to be: 1. Of course this was coming. 2. We wish mommy and daddy wouldn’t fight.
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Power Shifts, Tweets, and Truths
Musk’s romance with Republican power hit its peak in early 2025. He spent over $290 million - his own money and PAC funds - to push Trump’s reelection and build the GOP’s ground game machine. His America PAC alone pumped in more than $119 million to turn out the MAGA vote.
Musk wasn’t only giving money. He became a main character, mocking the left on X, going to war against DC regulators, then getting himself tapped to head up a purpose-built government agency, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, a nod to a crypto joke). This move put him at the heart of MAGA nation as an architect of Trump’s second act. .
But things fell apart fast. By spring 2025, Musk quit his post, hammering Trump for “ingratitude” and calling a Trump-backed spending bill a “disgusting abomination”. Trump fired back, promising to choke Musk’s companies off federal funding and contracts. The two went from friends to bitter enemies overnight. Yet Musk’s public rants against the left and his anti-Democrat PAC strategy have only gotten louder.
Recent events prove Musk isn’t drifting left. Just look at his post (which he later deleted) joking about violence against Biden and Harris - a move condemned even by Trump’s side, and another sign he’s not softening toward Democrats. After the attempt on Trump’s life in Pennsylvania, Musk was quick to bash Biden/Harris again and double down on his pro-Trump stance.
He lives for the culture war: he’s against DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion), Green New Deal stuff, COVID bureaucrats, and anything “woke.” Musk still makes big money off federal contracts, but all his current lobbying is aimed at gutting Democratic regulation, not winning over the left.
On the Other Hand
Some say Musk’s feud with Trump could drive him toward the Democrats in 2028 - maybe as revenge, maybe to shake up the game. This is pure fantasy. Musk’s business empire and his whole public brand now depends on bashing today’s hard-left Democrats, and he has thoroughly alienated the left. He’s been calling them the “party of division and hate” since 2022. He’s clashed with their regulators, blasted their policies, and warned about the dangers of “woke socialism.” That’s not a phase, it’s his identity now.
There’s no tactical or spite-fueled play here. Musk’s money and power are in the anti-regulation, anti-left space. If he turned around and backed the Democrats, it would risk his companies (again), his image, and even legal complications. No short-term grudge will override that.
Price Table
Yes (15¢): ✅ Underpriced
No (87¢): ❌ Overpriced
Strategic Recommendation: ✅
YES at 15¢. Our analysis still says the contract should resolve to NO, but paying 87¢ this early in a multi‑year market is terrible risk‑reward. Buy the cheap YES, ride the inevitable headline spikes, and cash out. You risk far less capital and shorten your time horizon. Flip the play only if Democrats draft a true outsider or the GOP abandons its anti‑elite posture. Until then, Musk stays at odds with Democratic power. Expect headline bumps, not a lasting leftward turn.