Who will win the Senate race in Arizona?
Arizona is looking more purple than red for 2028.
Arizona in Play: GOP Stumbles
The next Arizona Senate race is no longer a foregone conclusion. Once solidly red, the state is now a battleground shaped by shifting demographics, party infighting, and independent voter fatigue. Democrat Ruben Gallego scored a major win in 2024, but was it a sign of lasting change or a one-off in a chaotic cycle? The GOP’s path forward is uncertain, and the stakes are high.
Follow the market: Who will win the Senate race in Arizona? on Kalshi.com
The Last Arizona Senate Election
Gallego managed to lock down his base and then reach out to the middle: he ran as a Marine veteran and the son of Latino immigrants, put experience front and center, and offered clear, practical stances. He didn’t get sucked into left-wing activism that would have scared off moderates.
Polling averages in the run-up to November (FiveThirtyEight, October 2024) consistently showed Gallego ahead, with little volatility. In Maricopa County, the state’s swing powerhouse, Gallego beat Biden’s 2020 numbers by four points. This didn’t happen overnight: Democrats spent years building turnout machines, especially among Latinos. The final numbers prove it worked: Gallego won Latino voters 60% to 40%.