Who will win the Bolivian election?
Volatility and uncertainty may be the only certain bet.
Down South in Bolivia, the 2025 election is shaping up to be a street brawl. The Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) leftist machine that ruled for nearly two decades is splintered by court bans, betrayals, and runaway inflation. Established party discipline is gone.
Big players like ex-president Evo Morales are blocked from the race, while the remaining candidates scramble for control in a society on edge. The market sees Samuel Doria Medina, a billionaire with three failed runs, as the “frontrunner” at 55¢, but his actual support barely cracks 20% and depends heavily on elite business ties and quiet U.S. encouragement. For prediction-market traders, the landscape is a minefield.
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Fractured Parties, Fragile Future
This isn’t a smooth transfer of power, raw calculation is the only game in town now. With both Evo Morales and current incumbent President Luis Arce out of the running (blocked and withdrawn, respectively), the MAS party is limping into the contest divided, its core appeal battered by economic disaster.
Senate head Andrónico Rodríguez tries to hold up the MAS flag, but he’s haunted by the party’s collapse. Key insight: Rodríguez’s path to victory is a two-step parlay - first winning a divided MAS nomination, then retaining MAS’s historical run-off advantage - making the true odds low-teens, not far from the current market price.
Meanwhile, the right and center opposition is just as divided - billionaire Doria Medina has a lead only because everyone else is doing worse. Jorge Quiroga hangs around as a waiting room for those who cannot stomach Medina or MAS, but he has no broad movement behind him.