Who will Trump talk to before September?
Trump is hot and cold to leaders around the world.
Crossing Wires Before September
Trump’s contact list is under a microscope in today’s market from Kalshi: “Who will Trump talk to before September?” The latest White House logs confirm the Zelenskyy conversation just happened, wiping that option off the board. That leaves unfinished business in Gaza, tariff nations, and Russia itself as possible drivers of the president’s diplomatic agenda.
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Pressure and Opportunity
Trump’s next calls will be determined by a mix of crisis management, deal-making, and show-of-force diplomacy.
Russia/Ukraine: The war’s intensity is increasing, and Trump faces real pressure to deliver - either by pushing for peace or threatening hard. The stakes are obvious: European allies are one edge, there is daily destruction in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is shrinking (down 2.5% in the latest World Bank report), and the ongoing losses on both sides add urgency. Putin’s motivation for dialogue now lines up with Trump’s need for a big splash.
Zelenskyy has already been handled. Last month we took NO on a Putin call, because Trump was needing to show strength. With new tariffs on India for purchasing Russia oil, Zelensky sorted, and an EU trade deal in the bag, the Trump admin may look this month to get negotiations back on track.
U.K./Europe: The US-UK relationship is a top priority. Trump’s trade deal with Prime Minister Keir Starmer is nearly locked. His Scotland trip from July 25–29 included meetings, and another round is set for September 17–19 as a formal state visit with King Charles III. Given these commitments, Starmer’s 51¢/49¢ price split undervalues this outcome. Unless something interrupts, a Trump-Starmer conversation is likely.
China: Hardball trade talks keep the U.S.-China situation tense. Trump promised to speak with Xi Jinping after reaching a new tariff agreement. The supposed deadline for a deal is August 12. Calls become likely if the deal lands, otherwise it stays deadlocked. Xi’s 25¢-YES price matches the uncertainty, with no direct evidence of a scheduled call yet. Reuters covers it well here.
The Market Prices
![Narendra Modi: YES 64¢, NO 36¢ Vladimir Putin: YES 34¢, NO 66¢ Elon Musk: YES 20¢, NO 80¢ Volodymyr Zelenskyy: YES 100¢, NO 0¢ [ignore - already confirmed] Xi Jinping: YES 25¢, NO 75¢ Keir Starmer: YES 51¢, NO 49¢ Ursula von der Leyen: YES 15¢, NO 85¢ Kim Jong Un: YES 12¢, NO 88¢ Benjamin Netanyahu: YES 80¢, NO 20¢ [already resolved] Shigeru Ishiba: YES 59¢, NO 41¢ Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: YES 44¢, NO 56¢ Pedro Sanchez: YES 20¢, NO 80¢](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spvC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6fd31197-f141-4176-a5fc-1a927a72c9b4_2370x2370.png "Narendra Modi: YES 64¢, NO 36¢ Vladimir Putin: YES 34¢, NO 66¢ Elon Musk: YES 20¢, NO 80¢ Volodymyr Zelenskyy: YES 100¢, NO 0¢ [ignore - already confirmed] Xi Jinping: YES 25¢, NO 75¢ Keir Starmer: YES 51¢, NO 49¢ Ursula von der Leyen: YES 15¢, NO 85¢ Kim Jong Un: YES 12¢, NO 88¢ Benjamin Netanyahu: YES 80¢, NO 20¢ [already resolved] Shigeru Ishiba: YES 59¢, NO 41¢ Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: YES 44¢, NO 56¢ Pedro Sanchez: YES 20¢, NO 80¢")
Against the Market
Putin at 34¢: The market is lowballing the chances on both sides. A majority of Americans would back Trump talking to Putin if it might end the Ukraine war. With Zelenskyy already spoken for, Trump is hunting for a major breakthrough or at least the image of decisive action. With Ukraine finally striking back, Putin also wants to stabilize Russia’s position, even if talks don’t produce results.
Xi at 25¢: The odds here follow the trade negotiations. If an agreement is reached, a Xi call is immediately plausible. With an August 12 deal deadline coming up, keep an eye on both U.S. Commerce releases and Chinese state news. Unless something unusual happens, Xi is not the primary play.
The Bottom Line
Trump moves where he sees the advantage: grabbing the chance for a “win” or dominating a major news cycle. The reality of the Ukraine war, combined with political incentives in both Washington and Moscow, make a Trump-Putin conversation before September entirely possible - especially as both leaders need the image of engagement, whatever the real substance.
Strategic Recommendation: ✅
YES on Vladimir Putin at under 36¢. This is a value play given the proven pattern of leader-level outreach at major policy turning points, and both the U.S. and Russia are looking for narrative wins. Position now, with expectations of price movement up toward 50¢ as both governments start signaling in the next two weeks. Keep an especial eye on the by-play over Russian oil with India. If Trump looks weak there, a call with Putin becomes less likely.