Who will be the Dem NYC Mayor nominee this year?
Power struggles and predictions in New York City's Democratic Mayoral primary
June 25, 2025
📈 Contract Closed, Case Closed
Our read was clear: Cuomo wasn’t a lock, and Mamdani wasn’t priced right. The coalition shift was real, and we flagged it early. YES at 15¢ was value, and it paid.
Cuomo Redux?
The stakes don’t get higher than the 2025 Democratic primary for New York City mayor. This is the biggest party nomination battle in America, where fading old-guard hacks, energized socialists, and the unions’ political machines are all throwing elbows. But one question dominates the market: does anyone have the muscle or the votes to block Andrew Cuomo from a stunning comeback?
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Power Shifts & Critical Developments
Eric Adams’ wrecked reputation has finally killed off any myth of him controlling the New York Democratic machine. His decision to ditch the primary and run as an independent was a desperate survival move, but it also ripped the “incumbent advantage” out of the race. That means the party machinery is now up for grabs - and nearly every lever has landed in Cuomo’s hands.
Cuomo owns the fundraising war, hammering all rivals by raising seven figures from Wall Street and heavyweight unions. While progressives squawk, the numbers don’t lie. Cuomo’s topped every major poll for six months, thanks to his famous name, connections deep in local institutions, and his message that he’s the only adult left after the chaos of the Adams administration. Old-school “boss” politics are roaring back as the new normal.
In a Marist College poll (May 14), Cuomo grabs 37% support, with Mamdani trailing at 18%. No one else even cracks double digits. Simulations of ranked-choice voting (where voters rank their picks instead of choosing just one) show Cuomo winning with 54% after other candidates are eliminated.
Yet the hard left isn’t sitting quietly. Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani now leads among Democrats under 45 and is riding a well-oiled progressive campaign. His momentum recently cut Cuomo’s poll lead to single digits. But this just splits the anti-Cuomo vote; the “unite-the-left” dream evaporates when ethnic blocs, union loyalties, and paycheck politics overpower hashtags and outrage. As one pollster put it: “The left can’t win the machine wards, and the machine wards still make the mayor.”
Mainstream Democrats, meanwhile, are paralyzed. Names like Lander, Stringer, and Adrienne Adams grumble about jumping to third-party lines if Cuomo wins, but they don’t have the organization - or the donors - to make it hurt. Lander couldn’t have been clearer: he’d refuse to back Cuomo as the nominee. But all this does is split their vote even further, turning their corner of the party into a circus sideshow instead of a real threat.
Cuomo’s negatives - sexual misconduct accusations and deep progressive hatred - were once thought to be fatal. But thanks to voters’ short memories and the ranked-choice ballot, most have faded. After Adams’ fall from grace, the Democratic donor class and local media have pivoted from purity tests to “elect whoever can run the city.”
Cuomo’s lead may have narrowed, but Mamdani hasn’t picked up enough steam to compete head-to-head. He is a factor in the market, but not going to take the title without an outlier result.
Counterarguments & Rebuttals
Ranked-choice magic:
Some wishful thinkers say ranked-choice voting (RCV) will let anti-Cuomo forces unite late and win. Not happening. Polls for May show hard numbers: Cuomo is pulling in second-choice voters from Black and Latino working-class neighborhoods, who want nothing to do with the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) left or Mamdani’s progressive crew. RCV rewards broad coalitions - but there’s no Maya Wiley-type “unity” candidate in this field.
Progressive surge:
It’s true: Mamdani’s got the under-45 crowd fired up. But the guys who actually crank the votes - the old-guard, union-backed turnout machines - still run the show. Even at his best, Mamdani’s “never Cuomo” coalition is weak and split between him and Lander. It is likely Mamdani’s stock will rise before the end, though, as he is currently experiencing a surge.
Cuomo’s scandal shadow:
Some argue Cuomo’s baggage will drive voters away. Reality check: most Democrat primary voters have put it behind them. Endorsements remain lackluster, but the power brokers, unions, and donors sniff winning blood and are quietly falling in line. Major borough bosses and donors aren’t switching to Mamdani or organizing an “Anybody But Cuomo” campaign. The scandal talk is mostly background noise now.
“Unity ticket” pipe dreams:
The alternatives - Lander, Stringer, Ramos - keep hinting at protest runs on other lines or endorsing each other. That just fragments the already weak anti-Cuomo ranks even more. With the party so splintered and no one able to pull everyone together, Cuomo only gets more powerful by default.
Price Table
Andrew Cuomo: No 15¢ - ✅ Underpriced
Zohran Mamdani: Yes 15¢ - ⚠️ Underpriced, but stick to Cuomo No
All others: 1¢ - ⚠️ Ignore
Strategic Recommendation: ✅
Our analysis seems to point to Cuomo YES. But better is NO to Cuomo at 15¢.
Cuomo is probably going to win. But the market acts like it’s a lock when there’s still real risk. Buy NO Cuomo now, wait for Mamdani’s current momentum to crest, and sell when NO peaks in the high 20s-30s. Keep your eye on the June 24th deadline, and get out before the odds compress.
Note: Choose NO to Cuomo rather than YES Mamdani, as there is more liquidity in the Cuomo market.