Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next election?
Canada's response to Trump's trade policies boosts support for Carney's Liberals ahead of the upcoming election.
March 23, 2025
đ Contract Closed, Case Closed
Carney held the line. Stability prevailed, and traders who ignored the noise printed on YES at 73¢.
Carneyâs Liberal Edge: Canadaâs Pivot in the Trump Era
As Canada heads into the April 28 election, itâs facing new global challenges. Prime Minister Mark Carneyâs Liberal Party has gained support mainly because Canadians are reacting to President Trumpâs strong trade policies, not necessarily because of any groundbreaking changes by the Liberals themselves. Many are betting that Carney will stay in office after the election.
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Geopolitics Fuels Canadian Nationalism
Relations between the U.S. and Canada are getting worse. President Trump firmly opposes old global alliances, viewing a cooperative Canada as an irritant. His tariffs and tough trade talks arenât random; they reflect his strategy to push U.S. interests. Canadians, in response, are backing the Liberal government, finding comfort in Mark Carneyâs steady leadership.
Carney, who has a strong background in global economics, reassures Canadians worried about the unstable world created by Trump. Recent Nanos polling shows a solid lead for Carney, with 47% of Canadians preferring him as their Prime Minister, compared to 34% for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Polls Show TighteningâBut Carney Retains Structural Advantage
Pre-election polls show a tighter race: the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at 39%. This has made the Conservatives optimistic, lowering the price of saying âNoâ to a Carney win to 23¢. Many people seem to overestimate the Conservativesâ chances, forgetting Carneyâs appeal to moderate and independent voters. While Poilievreâs confrontational style fits with the MAGA culture in America, Canadian voters tend to be more practical when it comes to the tough realities of geopolitics.
Why Poilievre Falls ShortâPromise Meets Pragmatism
Those drawn by the Conservativeâs recent popularity need to remember that Trumpâs tough trade moves arenât going away soon, which keeps Canadians worried about the economy. Carneyâs Liberals promise stability and strong international negotiation skills voters want. Canadians find Carneyâs clear, professional approach more reliable than Poilievreâs bold but risky tactics.
This choice wonât change quickly. Even if the gap narrows, Carneyâs appeal based on stability will hold up till election day. If the Conservatives gain ground, itâs likely to stall when voters think about whatâs best for national interest and economic safety.
The Singular Focus of Canadian VotersâEconomic Security
The key issue in Canadaâs election isnât ideology but economics. With Trump making America more aggressive and unpredictable, Canadians donât want to risk their stable economic position. The Liberals represent that security best.
The markets have picked up on this, pricing a strong chance for the Liberals to win. With Liberal shares at 73¢, predictions favor Carney continuing as Prime Minister after the election. The Conservative option, at 28¢, is seen as an overestimate. Despite Poilievreâs populist charm, the Conservatives lack what voters need: stability, serious international standing, and a secure economic strategy.
Investment Opportunity: A Simple Play
Smart investors seeing Trumpâs changes should realize the Canadian vote will be defensive, aiming to protect their economy and separate identity. Right now, the market overvalues Poilievreâs chances, offering a good opportunity for savvy short selling.
Betting on Mark Carney to return as Prime Minister is clearly the right choice. While mainstream media might not catch on quickly to the changes under Trumpâs second term, theyâll see eventually that Canadian politics arenât as conventional as they think. Canadians are leaning towards practical, competent leadership under pressure from the U.S. and Carneyâs role, initially seen as temporary, has the seriousness voters will support.
Strategic Recommendation: â
Conservative Party (Pierre Poilievre): NO at 73¢
Liberal Party (Mark Carney): YES at 73¢ remains the reliable anchor position.
The momentary boost in Conservative odds wonât stand up against a deeper analysis. Canadian voters, above all, seek steady and reliable economic leadership amidst serious external challenges. Mark Carney and the Liberal Party decisively meet this demand.