What will Leavitt say in her next press briefing?
The press and the Press Secretary spar over what is relevant.
News in the News
This quick-turnaround market asks a simple question: which topics will White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt mention in her briefing at 1pm EST today? With over $3 million already traded in this series, there’s lots of money and attention on the line, and results will be settled in just a few hours. If you want some end-of-day entertainment mixed with real money risk, here’s your shot.
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How Today’s Briefing Works
This isn’t the kind of market where you spend hours doing deep research. But it’s also not just a coin toss either. Karoline Leavitt is a disciplined communicator for the Trump White House. Her press briefings are always on message: bragging about tough policies, pushing back hard on the mainstream media, and spotlighting any major global or domestic headline that helps the administration look strong. If a topic doesn’t fit the current game plan, don’t expect it to come up.
There will be a lot of price movement right before the briefing starts, so here’s how to spot which phrases are almost certain to show up, and which ones are money-wasters.
What Drives White House Talking Points Now
To figure out what Leavitt will say, you have to know what matters to Trump and his advisors right now.
First is immigration and border security. With “Operation Tidal Wave” (the big recent arrest push) and non-stop talk about deportations and the military at the border, expect Leavitt to focus hard on these.
The Trump White House loves to show that it’s shaking up the media. There’s a pattern of shouting out “new media” voices, trashing mainstream outlets, and picking fights with old-school journalists.
If something big is happening overseas (like military action between India and Pakistan, or trade drama with China and Russia), it will get worked into the narrative—especially if America can sound tough and in control.
If there’s a messy domestic situation that helps Trump’s “drain the swamp” message, like the FEMA shakeup or battles with Harvard, that’s likely to be mentioned. But expect them to ignore boring or off-topic stories. Leavitt only talks about universities if she’s attacking the left.
Current Prices: What’s Likely, What’s Not
Here are the contract options and their current "Yes" prices (a higher price means the market thinks it’s more likely):
Media: 96¢
India: 90¢
China: 90¢
Pakistan: 79¢
Court: 74¢
Immigration: 69¢
Canada: 64¢
Border: 77¢
Deportation: 64¢
Russia: 79¢
University: 56¢
Carney: 49¢
Mexico: 56¢
Alcatraz: 41¢
DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency): 35¢
Prayer: 27¢
Venezuela: 29¢
NATO: 33¢
Citizenship: 29¢
Derby: 14¢
AI: 24¢
FIFA: 21¢
Flag Day: 19¢
Birthday: 14¢
Key Insights and Misses
Immigration, Border, Deportation, Security
Leavitt sticks to what the Trump team does best. Talking tough on immigration, deportations, and the border is her bread and butter. There have been recent reports of self-deportation offers and big ICE raids. These topics are almost guaranteed—if you can buy below 75¢, it’s a steal, since real odds are more like 90% or higher for all three.
Pakistan, India, China, Russia
Are also likely to come up, since both countries have been in the headlines with border conflict in Kashmir bordering on a hot war. China is never far from the administrations mind. Russia just had a Victory Parade, and President Trump loves parades, with one being planned by the military for his birthday.
Media, Court, and Cleaning Up DC
The “media” contract is about as close to a sure thing as you’ll ever get. The White House is always in a fight with the press, and Leavitt will want to brag about how they’re controlling the media narrative. “Court” is likely, but a little less certain. She’ll mention it if there’s new legal news on border security, university issues, or recent FEMA changes.
University
Universities like Harvard and Columbia are under fire from the administration, especially about funding and free speech . If Leavitt talks about fighting “wokeness” or antisemitism, expect “university” to be named.
Canada and Carney
These are possible but less likely. There was a recent meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Carney about trade and security, so it’s not out of the question. But there is more recent news.
Alcatraz
Trump recently ordered Alcatraz prison to reopen. If you want a middling risky pick for an even payout, this is it.
Prayer
Maybe. A new Pope has been elected, but will Leavitt say “prayer”? It’s specific to what she decides to say.
DOGE, Venezuela, NATO, Citizenship, Derby, AI, FIFA, Flag Day, Birthday
These are basically pure gambles. There’s nothing in the immediate news to suggest they’ll mention these topics.
Addressing Counterarguments
Some people will point out that “AI” (with all the recent talk about American tech) might make an appearance. But unless Leavitt can tie these directly into a win for Trump, she’ll keep things focused.
Others may look to fun side topics like “birthday” or “Derby,” since it’s racing season. But if there isn’t political value, it won’t come up.
Market Spread and Actionable Recommendations
40% or below: ⚠️“Alcatraz” if you can get it in the low 30s
Up to 45%: ⚠️ Decent speculation for “University” or “Carney”
Up to 75%: ✅ “Pakistan,” “India,” “Russia,” “Border,” “Immigration,” “Deportation”
Up to 85%: ✅ “Media” or , but your gains will be small and risks higher
Where the Money Is
The market has already set the high prices on the obvious winners: “Pakistan,” “India,” “Russia,” “Border,” and maybe “Deportation.”
“University,” “Mexico,” and “Carney” are the only options in the 40–50¢ range that offer a real chance for a payoff if something unexpected comes up, with “Alcatraz” trailing.
Strategic Recommendation: ✅
Go for “Media” below 85¢, and get in on “Immigration,” “Border,” “India,” “Pakistan,” or “Russia” if they’re at 75¢ or less. These are all likely.
If you’re feeling adventurous, “University” at 45¢ is your best “medium-risk” picks, especially since Ivy League schools are in the news. “Carney” was recently at the White House and is in this range.
Stay away from: “AI,” “FIFA,” “Venezuela,” “Derby,” “Flag Day,” and “Birthday.” There’s smaller chance these will be mentioned with all eyes on more important matters.
Stick with topics the Trump team is focused on. Leavitt’s job is to boost Trump’s wins and hammer home their narrative—not to surprise anyone. Like always, the right play is to follow the message and ignore the noise.