New US-Iran nuclear deal this year?
A look at May's receipts, and chaotic Us-Iran negotiations
No Time For Hesitation
A prediction market on Kalshi for a US–Iran nuclear-deal market hovers at 46¢ YES, a near coin-flip between eleventh-hour diplomacy lovers and doomsday bettors. Meanwhile, Israeli jets are pounding suspected nuclear sites while Tehran vows payback, turning every headline into a fresh volatility spike. We’ll provide some clarity.
Follow the market: New US-Iran nuclear deal this year? on Kalshi or Polymarket
May in the Looking Glass
Before digging into the mess in the Middle East, a look at May:
The numbers are in and public: two calls settled, nine still live, total performance up 47.6% on the simplest one-contract-per-call basis. Every figure below can be verified on Kalshi’s trade tape or in the Substack archive.
What Has Already Hit the Bank
May 9: Leavitt press briefing. We told readers to load “Media” and the border trio under 75¢. The briefing landed exactly on script, turning a 21¢ entry in “Media” into a full-dollar settlement. Profit recorded: +78.57.
May 26: Polish presidential runoff. At 39 ¢ Karol Nawrocki was mispriced because Warsaw media ignored the nationalist vote transfer. The contract settled at 100¢. Profit recorded: +156.41.
Locked-in gain so far: +234.98.
What Is Still on the Tape
Nine positions dating from May 2 to May 28 show a combined open gain of +288.24 at current marks. The only open red line is the Government-shutdown YES from May 2. Priced at 39¢ then, marked 28¢ now, it shows -10.26. Congress will write the final story when the fiscal clock runs out, not in June, so the loss is floating.
Add all open marks and the portfolio prints +523.22 since May 2. When the remaining contracts settle the figure will move, but the running tally is positive.
Each call was published with a stated recommendation level. There is no retrofitting.
How Those Gains Happened
We ask where power flows and buy the mispricing that power creates. Several filters inform our recommendations:
Incentive alignment. If the White House needs a shutdown to force budget cuts the probability of shutdown is higher than the chatter implies.
Voter momentum. Rural and working-class blocs keep sliding right. Poll averages built on urban samples lag that shift.
Institutional drag. Markets over-weight polling inertia and under-weight turnout machinery. When that tension peaks prices gap toward reality.
Why the Edge Hasn’t Closed
Prediction markets skew left in participation. That bias discounts the very coalitions moving the vote. Until the trading crowd mirrors the electorate the same mispricings will recur: conservative surges abroad, populist policy in Washington, regulatory surprises that favor the right’s agenda. We document the gap, readers take the other side, and price convergence does the rest.
What a New Subscriber Actually Does
You do not need intraday reflexes. One click buys the recommendation at or near the entry price we print. Then you ignore the noise.