The Path of Most Resistance
This contract tracks whether the federal government will experience a shutdown at any point in 2025. A single missed deadline or lapse in funding is enough to trigger a YES resolution.
Back in May, when it traded at 39¢, we noted value up to 45¢. With the September 30 funding deadline approaching, we’re returning to examine how the market has shifted.
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Hill Math
Congress is back with a hard September 30 funding deadline and almost no runway to reconcile policy riders, rescissions, and toplines. Reuters frames it bluntly as a one‑month deadline to avert a shutdown and flags the running fight over Trump’s leverage with Senate Republicans.
Structure drives outcomes. Republicans hold a small House majority; the Senate still requires 60 votes. Any CR (continuing resolution, a short‑term funding bill) or omnibus (a big all‑in‑one spending package) must clear a bipartisan Senate, while the White House is pushing for policy wins on spending control, rescissions (clawbacks), and executive discretion. The White House refuses to reverse health cuts or limit the president’s rescission authority, while Democrats demand restorations and guardrails.
Power Shifts and Live Wires
First, the power fight. Democrats and some institutionalist Republicans are pushing back on rescissions and pocket rescissions after months of unilateral moves. Sen. Chris Coons called the tactic “unconstitutional” and an assault on Congress’s power of the purse, a stance that narrows the path for any clean CR that grants flexible executive language.
Next, transparency rulings are boxing in OMB. A federal appeals court ordered OMB to restore the appropriations tracking site, explicitly reinforcing congressional control over spending flows. Maintaining the site “upholds Congress’s power over public spending”. That hardens Democratic demands for statutory guardrails in any funding bill. Riders multiply.