Canadian Election: Prediction Market Picks
Canadians hit the polls TODAY for elections as markets line up their final predictions.
The Canadian Election: Nationalism and the End of the Old Order
Today, Canada is holding a federal election that is far from normal. The stakes are huge, the mood is tense, and the results will matter well beyond Ottawa. The old ways of polite politics and global cooperation are over. Instead, this election is a raw fight over Canada’s independence, economic survival, and future as a nation.
Follow the market: Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next election? on Kalshi.com
Trump’s Shadow and the Nationalist Surge
This 2025 Canadian election is shaped by the new global power game. President Trump’s second term has broken the old North American rules. His 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, open threats to take over Canada, and his shocking statement—"We don’t need anything from Canada. And I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state." forced Canadians to face questions about their country’s independence and survival that would have seemed impossible just a year ago.
Because of this, Canadian politics have shifted dramatically. What was supposed to be a vote on ten years of Liberal rule and economic problems has turned into a test of who can best protect Canada’s independence and economy. The Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, has used this wave of nationalism to turn what looked like a sure loss into a likely majority win. As Scott Reid said, "Almost everything about this campaign is without precedent... Mark Carney, with no electoral experience, reverses a 26-point deficit in his party’s fortunes and takes them to the brink of a majority victory. "Nothing about this that’s happened before. It’s not just that it’s unprecedented, it’s that it’s enormously consequential in all of its implications. It’s all jaw-dropping."
Current Market Prices
Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next election?
Liberal Party (Carney): YES 80¢, NO 21¢
Conservative Party (Poilievre): YES 21¢, NO 80¢
Bloc Québécois: YES 1¢
NDP: YES 1¢
Green: YES 1¢
People’s Party: YES 1¢
How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
99 or below: YES 3¢
100–119: YES 3¢
120–139: YES 3¢
140–149: YES 7¢
150–159: YES 14¢
160–169: YES 14¢
170–179: YES 19¢
180–189: YES 22¢
190–210: YES 23¢
211 or above: YES 8¢
How many seats will the Conservatives win?
99 or below: YES 5¢
100–119: YES 15¢
120–139: YES 45¢
140–149: YES 16¢
150–159: YES 14¢
160–169: YES 6¢
170–179: YES 2¢
180–189: YES 2¢
190–210: YES 3¢
211 or above: YES 3¢
What Actually Moves the Vote
The Trump Effect: Nationalism Beats Change
The biggest factor in this election is the Trump effect. The U.S. president’s open hostility has pushed Canadians to unite around their country. The Liberals, who looked like they were losing, have become the party of national defense. Trump inflamed the situation days before voting, telling Time magazine, 'We don’t need anything from Canada. And I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.'"
This is not a normal election. Old issues like cost of living, housing, and Liberal fatigue have been pushed aside by a real threat to Canada’s future. The Conservatives, who focused on economic problems, have been outplayed by this wave of nationalism. Melanie Paradis said, "At exactly the wrong moment, we have this threat to the south of us and it completely overturned the tables in Canadian politics."
The Carney Factor: A Technocrat as Defender
Mark Carney, a former central banker, was an unlikely political hero. But his strong economic background and calm style have become big advantages in this crisis. He is seen as the only leader who can stand up to Trump and handle the fallout. One voter said, "I'm probably going to go Carney on this one just because right now, I feel like we need stability. Being in the English banking system and being in the Canadian banking system, he really understands the economy."
Carney’s campaign stayed focused on protecting Canada’s independence and economy. His response to the deadly Vancouver attack—calling for unity and using the Filipino value of "Bayanihan" (which means helping each other)—showed his steady leadership. "We will comfort the grieving. We will care for each other. We will unite in common purpose."
The Collapse of the Left: NDP and Bloc Marginalized
The election has become a fight between the two main parties, crushing smaller ones. The NDP, once important, is facing a historic wipeout. The New Statesman reports, "The NDP could fall below official party status in the expanded 343-seat House of Commons, suffering its worst result since 1993 or ever."
Voters are choosing strategically, moving away from the NDP and Bloc Québécois to back the Liberals as the best defense against the Conservatives and Trump. The Greens and People’s Party have no real chance.
The Conservative Ceiling: Populism Hits a Wall
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives started strong, riding anger over inflation and housing. But their message has been drowned out by the nationalist wave. Their base has changed, with more young voters but fewer older, reliable ones. Melanie Paradis said, "We used to be so reliably strong with the older demographic... Now we have an incredibly strong showing among young voters, but now we’ve lost the support of senior men."
The Conservatives’ attacks on Liberal-NDP cooperation backfired, pushing left-leaning voters to the Liberals. Their main question—"Can we really afford to allow Mark Carney to have the fourth term of Justin Trudeau?"—has lost power because of the new nationalist mood.
The Numbers: Polls, Projections, and Turnout
YouGov’s final projection: Liberals 162–204 seats (central estimate 185), Conservatives 121–155 (central 136).
Popular vote: Liberals 42–44%, Conservatives 38–40%.
NDP: 3 seats or fewer, risking loss of official party status.
Early voting turnout is up 25%, showing strong voter interest and likely helping the Liberals, who benefit from strategic voting and anti-Trump feelings.
Contract-by-Contract Analysis
Who Will Be Prime Minister?
Liberal Party (Carney): YES 80¢, NO 21¢
Conservative Party (Poilievre): YES 21¢, NO 80¢
Others: 1¢
The market is finally catching up to the facts. Carney is the clear favorite. The nationalist wave, the NDP collapse, and Poilievre’s problems with voters make a Conservative win almost impossible. The only risk would be a huge polling mistake or a last-minute surprise—neither is likely.
Liberal Party Seat Count
99 or below (3¢): ❌ Overpriced
100–119 (3¢): ❌ Overpriced
120–139 (3¢): ❌ Overpriced
140–149 (7¢): ❌ Overpriced
150–159 (14¢): ⚠️ Slightly underpriced, but unlikely
160–169 (14¢): ⚠️ Slightly underpriced, but unlikely
170–179 (19¢): ✅ Underpriced
180–189 (22¢): ✅ Underpriced
190–210 (23¢): ✅ Underpriced
211 or above (8¢): ❌ Overpriced
The central estimate is 185 seats, with a range of 162–204. The best bets are in the 170–210 seat range. The lower seat ranges are bad bets.
Conservative Party Seat Count
99 or below (5¢): ❌ Overpriced
100–119 (15¢): ❌ Overpriced
120–139 (45¢): ⚠️ Fair, but not a good value
140–149 (16¢): ✅ Underpriced
150–159 (14¢): ✅ Underpriced
160–169 (6¢): ❌ Overpriced
170–179 (2¢): ❌ Overpriced
180–189 (2¢): ❌ Overpriced
190–210 (3¢): ❌ Overpriced
211 or above (3¢): ❌ Overpriced
The central estimate is 136 seats, with a range of 121–155. The 140–159 seat range is underpriced and worth a small play if you think the Conservatives do a bit better than expected. The 120–139 range is fairly priced but not a value. Avoid the rest.
Strategic Recommendation: ✅
Prime Minister Market
Liberal Party (Carney): YES at 80¢
Conservative Party (Poilievre): NO at 80¢
Liberal Seat Count
170–179 (19¢): ✅ Underpriced
180–189 (22¢): ✅ Underpriced
190–210 (23¢): ✅ Underpriced
211 or above: ❌ Avoid
All lower brackets: ❌ Avoid
Conservative Seat Count
140–149 (16¢): ✅ Underpriced
150–159 (14¢): ✅ Underpriced
120–139 (45¢): ⚠️ Fair, but not a value
All other brackets: ❌ Avoid
This Canadian election is not about the past ten years of Liberal rule. It’s about who can protect Canada in a world where the old global order is gone and power rules. Mark Carney and the Liberals have taken the nationalist lead, while the Conservatives are stuck fighting old battles. The NDP and Bloc are irrelevant.